India’s Buying Intent Hits 19-Month Low Just Ahead of Diwali: TRA

Key findings

• 19-month low: The All-India Buying Intent Index falls to 94.31 in October, its lowest reading since April 2025 and 5.8% below October last year.
• Sharpest monthly decline: The index falls 3.96% in October, following three earlier consecutive monthly declines.
• Nearly 70% of super-categories contract: 16 of the 23 shown in October’s BII dashboard record declines, while seven expand.
• Major durables weaken: Mobile Phones record four consecutive monthly falls; Air Conditioners, Refrigerators and Washing Machines decline for three months each.

Mumbai, 2 November 2026: Just six days before Diwali, India’s Buying Intent has reached its lowest reading in 19 months. The October 2026 Buying Intent Index (BII) stands at 94.31, following four consecutive monthly declines. The latest reading is also below January 2026’s 94.94, the previous low in the series.

October’s declines span 16 of the 23 super-categories shown in the BII dashboard. Telecom (-20.33%), Energy (-17.95%), Stationery (-17.87%), Services (-17.53%) and Retail (-17.42%) recorded the steepest falls. Healthcare (+34.86%) and Food & Beverage (+12.45%) were the strongest expanding super-categories.

The weakness among large consumer sectors predates October

Seven of the ten largest super-categories had already weakened between July and September, including FMCG (-19.6%), Food & Beverage (-16.6%), Personal Accessories (-11.8%) and Consumer Electronics (-8.2%). By October, nine of the ten were below their July readings, led by declines in FMCG (-23.6%), Retail (-19.5%), Personal Accessories (-15.1%) and Consumer Electronics (-13.7%).

Four major durable categories enter Diwali after sustained declines

Mobile Phones have declined for four consecutive months, while Air Conditioners, Refrigerators and Washing Machines have recorded three consecutive monthly falls. None of the four showed the same sequence in October 2025. This simultaneous weakening in major consumer-durable categories is among the clearest distinctive findings in the current report.

Diwali fell on 20 October last year, when national BII rose 2.9% to 100.16, its highest reading in the series. This year Diwali falls on 8 November; the November reading will therefore provide the corresponding festive-month observation.

Selected category leaders record sustained reversals

Tata Motors has led Passenger Vehicles in seven of the last eight months, after Maruti Suzuki led nine of the first eleven. October readings put Tata Motors at 946.6, Hyundai at 597.4 and Maruti Suzuki at 595.5, giving Tata Motors the widest lead held by any category leader since June 2025. In Metal, JSW Steel overtook Tata Steel for the first time in the 19-month series, ending its 18-month uninterrupted lead. Vivo has led Mobile Phones for four consecutive months, compared with Apple iPhone’s seven-month run from April to October 2025.

Healthcare expands while other sectors retreat

Healthcare rose 34.86% during October, with Indian Pharmaceuticals up 74.3%. Private Health Insurance has maintained Buying Intent at several times its 2025 levels over five consecutive months. The BFSI super-category, by contrast, fell 10.11% in October, although HDFC Bank reached a 19-month high of 967.6 and Axis Bank recorded its third consecutive monthly fall.

The Buying Intent Index said: “India’s Buying Intent Index has reached its lowest point in 19 months, and October has recorded the steepest monthly fall in the series. The readings show sustained weakness across several major consumer sectors and durable categories just ahead of Diwali, alongside very different developments elsewhere. November and December will complete the picture for 2026.”

Read the full October 2026 report

About Buying Intent Index

BII measures urban Indian consumers’ keenness to buy through monthly research covering more than 2,000 brands across 16 cities. Its All-India baseline was 100 in April 2025. BII tracks Buying Intent, not actual transactions.

Research note: A stricter field rating standard was introduced in October 2026. The index values above are recorded readings; comparisons with earlier months should take the methodological change into account.

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