New entrantPaintsApr ’25 → Aug ’26Independent BII analysis

What caught our attention. Birla Opus entered decorative paints in 2024, into a category shaped over decades by a few incumbents. We compared its latest Buying Intent with its first reading, alongside the established brands.

Birla Opus has grown Buying Intent 710% in 16 months.

Decades-old brands left behind by a swift 30-month-old.

It shows that decades-old sector rules can be rewritten.

Buying Intent · then and now

Buying Intent then (Apr ’25; Berger Oct ’25) and now (Aug ’26), with change
Brand	Then	Now	Change
Birla Opus	13.90	112.80	+710%
	51.30^*	57.10	+11%
	415.50	377.40	−9%
	39.20	32.20	−18%

Buying Intent, normalised (Apr ’25 = 100). Then = Apr ’25, now = Aug ’26. *Berger’s first reading with a usable base is Oct ’25.

How did Opus do it?

It entered paints at grand scale.

Instead of entering like a small challenger and scaling over time, Birla Opus built much of the machine almost at once: much of it in parallel.

Plants
Capacity
Dealers
Towns
Depots
Painters
Contractors
Exclusive retail

A mature category rewards a bold entry. Enter it like you want to conquer it.

What the data shows

Measured · What BII data shows

Over the same months Asian Paints fell 9% and Nerolac 18%; Berger, first read with a usable base in Oct ’25, rose 11%. Only the entrant grew sharply.

Most of the rise is recent. Birla Opus stayed at or below 41.4 through its first year of readings, then reached 75.0 in Jun ’26 and 112.8 in August.

Asian Paints still leads by a wide margin; 377.4 against 112.8. This is a challenger closing distance rather than a change of leader.

The entrant against the incumbents

Normalised index, Apr ’25 = 100. Gaps are months without a reading. Asian Paints still leads by a wide margin.

Monthly Buying Intent for Birla Opus, Asian Paints, Berger Paints and Nerolac, Apr ’25 to Aug ’26
Month	Asian Paints	Birla Opus	Berger Paints	Nerolac
Apr ’25	415.50	13.90	no reading	39.20
May ’25	343.70	no reading	no reading	32.50
Jun ’25	351.40	23.30	no reading	2.50
Jul ’25	425.50	2.40	no reading	17.50
Aug ’25	619.80	no reading	no reading	26.90
Sep ’25	344.10	31.40	1.90	6.00
Oct ’25	311.40	41.40	51.30	21.80
Nov ’25	310.80	17.90	49.90	11.20
Dec ’25	404.40	26.80	2.10	9.60
Jan ’26	546.60	no reading	0.70	8.80
Feb ’26	647.70	no reading	18.70	3.20
Mar ’26	410.80	11.40	1.60	4.10
Apr ’26	462.30	22.20	170.70	51.30
May ’26	520.40	30.50	97.50	126.30
Jun ’26	569.60	75.00	114.10	76.40
Jul ’26	300.50	48.90	64.90	22.40
Aug ’26	377.40	112.80	57.10	32.20

Where the rise came from

Birla Opus Buying Intent, each month

Below 42 for its first year of readings; 75.0 in Jun ’26 and 112.8 in Aug ’26. Dots: no reading that month.

Why this is interesting

Interpreted · What the pattern may mean

Mature categories are often assumed to move slowly: household relationships with paint brands have been built over decades. Birla Opus’s readings suggest consumer keenness can form much faster when an entrant arrives at full scale.

The size of the percentage owes a great deal to how low it started: the level it has reached is the more telling number.

What might be happening?

Interpreted · Possibilities rather than findings

The data tells us what has changed. It does not by itself establish why. These are directions a brand team could investigate.

One possibility worth investigating is the breadth of the launch: plants, dealers, depots, painters, contractors and exclusive retail built largely in parallel, making the brand available and recommended quickly.
The pattern may warrant looking at painter and contractor recommendation, which can shape which brands a household considers.
A brand team could test whether the June to August step coincides with seasonal category activity or with specific Birla Opus campaigns.

What should Birla Opus look at next?

Investigate · Questions BII can take further

In which cities has Birla Opus’s Buying Intent grown fastest?
Is its Brand Trust keeping pace with its rising Buying Intent?
Which age groups are most open to the new brand?
Which Brand Behaviours distinguish Birla Opus from Asian Paints?
Does the August level hold over the next readings?

Measuring challenger momentum

How BII can be used this way

This illustrates how BII can track a new entrant against incumbents month by month: whether consumer keenness is forming, how fast, and against whom.

For an incumbent, the same read shows when a challenger has moved from noise to a genuine competitor.

See the six ways brands use BII

Go deeper in BII

Explore this question by:

City · 16 cities
Zones within a city
Age
Brand Trust
Brand Desire
Brand Behaviours (22)
Competitive set
Monthly trend

Method and caveats

Period: Apr ’25 compared with Aug ’26 (16 months). Berger from Oct ’25, its first reading with a usable base.
Category: Paints.
Base: BII’s monthly national reading across 16 cities. Birla Opus’s Apr ’25 reading rests on a thin base (eight respondents), so the direction is more reliable than the size of the percentage.
Reading: Normalised index (Apr ’25 = 100). +710% is the ratio of the unrounded stored readings.

Figures updated. The LinkedIn post showed +712%, calculated from the rounded 13.9. The ratio of the stored readings is +710%. The post’s Berger “then” figure (51.3) is Berger’s Oct ’25 reading, labelled as such here.

Independent BII analyses. Brands featured are selected because we find the market development noteworthy; inclusion does not imply a client relationship.

What would this analysis reveal about your brand?

Track Buying Intent, Brand Trust and Brand Desire across your brand, its category and its competitive set: every month.